Creation of Mathematical Model to Optimize Breast Cancer Screening Program

A.V. Rusyn, V.I. Rusyn, O.M. Odoshevska, O.T. Devinyak


This paper describes the work on optimization of breast cancer screening questionnaire, mathematical model created on its base, which is capable of determining the risk of breast cancer developing; there is identified the impact of factors of history and lifestyle on cancer risk.
Materials and Methods. Statistical analysis and modeling were performed in R 3.0.1. L1-regularized logistic regression model was used to determine the formula for calculating the risk of breast cancer, the operating characteristics analysis of the model was carried out in order to optimize the border between classes.
Results and Discussion. Based on a survey of 321 women, questionnaire for breast cancer screening has been optimized, the negative impact of main factors on the risk of breast cancer is confirmed. In addition to high-risk factors a number of favorable factors that reduce the risk of cancer have been identified: breast-feeding for more than 3 months, ischomenia before 45 years. The new model for determining breast cancer risk based on a survey of the female population is characterized by high accuracy of fitting (97.5 %) and prediction (94.1 %), that made it possible to create a computer program for use in clinics, that is capable to determine the risk of breast cancer.
Conclusion. Using proposed mathematical modeling significantly improves the efficiency of questionnaire screening, makes survey easy due to reducing the number of questions and appears to be more accurate and fast way to determine groups at risk of breast cancer.


risk factors; breast cancer; prediction model; mathematical modeling


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